Share your ideas of where we go from here. Scroll down to share a comment.

Earthquake

This year an earthquake rocked the county’s transportation planning world. A consultant estimated that it would cost $4.3 billion to build commuter rail on the rail corridor. This figure is nine times larger than the $478 million estimate for commuter rail published in the Transit Corridor Alternative Analysis in 2021.

This news puts the Regional Transportation Commission (RTC) at a crossroads. In December, the RTC will decide whether to invest in rail transit, by funding an environmental impact report. Their decision hinges on whether they believe the project is financially feasible.

To help the RTC make the decision, the commission hired a consultant to figure out how much local revenue (in addition to state and federal grants) would be needed to build and operate the project. The consultant estimated the amount of a future sales tax measure that would be needed to build, operate and maintain the project. Because the amount of state and federal grants is uncertain, the consultant produced estimates for two scenarios: one where 20% of the revenue would come from a local sales tax and one where 50% local revenue would be needed. Under the 20% scenario, a county sales tax of 1.5% would be needed. Under the 50% scenario, a 2.25% sales tax would be needed.

For comparison purposes, the Measure D transportation sales tax of 2016 was a 0.5% sales tax. It barely received the required 2/3rds vote to pass. There is no one arguing that a sales tax 3 to 4.5 times the amount of Measure D could pass in the context of a well-funded opposition.

Back to Basics
Given the unlikelihood of passing a local tax measure for rail, we need to refocus. Let’s start with discussing our basic values. What is transportation for? And what principles do we want it to embody?

Today’s transportation planners remind us that transportation is a means to an end. The end is our access to the places where we meet our needs. If access is the goal, we realize that it’s not just motorized transportation that we need. Strategies that increase access can actually reduce transportation demand: like locating housing that’s affordable near job centers and locating jobs near existing (relatively) affordable housing; like locating recreation and shopping opportunities near home; like locating job centers on transit lines.


This suggests that a transportation planning agency should be involved in urban planning and housing policy (which is why the Bay Area’s Metropolitan Transportation Commission is concerned with both). If the value of access prevailed in our county, it would be inconceivable for the County to accept a Kaiser application to build a medical facility with 300 employees at a location over a mile from the nearest bus line and for our transportation agency to remain silent on the proposal. (Kaiser withdrew the application.)

We need to evaluate transportation investments on their ability to improve access, as well as how well they serve our values of social equity, health, and environmental and financial sustainability.

Social Equity
In Watsonville, 31% of the population are not drivers (youth; disabled; and households with no car). Our auto-dependent transportation system fails these people. And it fails to make transportation affordable for those who do drive a vehicle. For Watsonville residents, transportation consumes an average 20% of household income, whereas in San Francisco where public transit is good, the average household spends 9% on transportation. A worthy social equity goal for our County is to make alternatives to auto transportation competitive with auto travel.

Health and Environmental Sustainability
It is abundantly clear that our society’s dependency on the automobile is a huge factor in changing the climate. In addition, it is harmful to our health. According to California’s Office of Traffic Safety, Santa Cruz County ranks 11th out of 58 counties in rate of serious injuries and deaths. We rank 2nd in rate of injuries and death to bicyclists and 5th in rate of injuries and death to pedestrians.

When we spend more of our local transportation dollars on highways and roads than transit and safe streets for active transportation, we undermine our health, enable urban sprawl, and accelerate towards the climate cliff.

Financial Sustainability
I believe most of us would agree that a beneficial transit project becomes a harmful transit project if the financial strain results in cuts to existing transit. A case in point was the BART extension to Oakland Airport. In 2009 transit advocacy groups TransForm and Urban Habitat filed a complaint against the BART extension, stating that the price tag was several times what voters were told nine years earlier; that additional debt would hurt BART’s financial health; and funds would be better spent supporting AC Transit at a time when routes were being cut. As an alternative, the groups advocated for a bus shuttle from an existing BART station to the airport. Now BART reports that they are “facing a fiscal cliff,” and other Bay Area transit agencies are expecting to slash routes in 2026 due to Governor Newsom’s withdrawal from his agreement to a $750 million bridge loan.

Effective Transit
Christof Spieler, in Trains, Buses, People says we need to have the right conversation about transit. “We need to talk about what matters:
– To focus on the quality of service, not the technology that delivers it.
– To understand that the transit experience depends on buildings and streets and sidewalks as much as it does stations and trains.
– And above all to talk about getting transit to the right place”

Expanding on his last point, Spieler writes,
“DART, serving Dallas, has built the largest light-rail network in the US. But despite being expansive, it reaches remarkably few places. It skips a dense concentration of jobs in Uptown, barely serves the city’s biggest medical district, stops outside of walking distance of several universities, and misses Love Field’s airport terminal by half a mile. As a result, it carries half as many people per mile as San Diego, Phoenix , or Houston.” Spieler explains that DART purchased freight rail right of way and “built its lines straight down those pre-cleared paths” and missing out on getting people where they want to go.

What next?
Several years ago the RTC invited transit planner Jarrett Walker to give a talk. It’s worth watching the video. After comparing our transit service with our population and job density Walker concluded:
“One of the things I want to leave you with very clearly, and this is not the fault of anybody at METRO Transit, who are doing what they can with what they have, is that you do not have very much transit for a county your size.

“And the debate before you is not just the exciting debate about what your infrastructure should be…You have a very real immediate debate over whether you want to begin providing competitive transit service.”

We still have not had the discussion that Walker proposed. What if the RTC invited Walker back to lead a discernment process about where we go from here?